Aging Tech is a Recession Bellwether

The “Jalopy” Economy: Why Aging Tech is a Recession Bellwether and a Drag on Business

By Mobile Mage Editor | Published November 26, 2025

If you’re reading this on a cracked screen or waiting for your printer to finish a job it started five minutes ago, you aren’t alone. The average American now holds onto their smartphone for 29 months a significant jump from the 22-month cycle seen in 2016.

While holding onto a “jalopy” device (as 69-year-old retiree Heather Mitchell calls her six-year-old Samsung) feels like a smart personal finance move, economists warn it may be a flashing red light for the broader economy.

Here is why the slowing upgrade cycle is a bellwether for recession, a hidden tax on business productivity, and what the tech industry must do to fix it.

The Recession Bellwether: Fear Over Function

When consumers stop upgrading essential technology, it signals a retreat in economic confidence. Smartphones have transitioned from luxury items to necessities, yet a growing number of Americans now view a new phone as a luxury they cannot afford.

This behavior creates a feedback loop indicative of a recessionary mindset:

• Consumer Hesitation: Widespread fear regarding the job market and inflation drives people to “make do” with aging tech.
• Corporate Hoarding: It isn’t just individuals. Corporations are vetting new tech more slowly and extending hardware shelf-life to cut immediate costs.

When both B2B and B2C markets contract on hardware spend simultaneously, it suggests a fundamental lack of faith in near-term economic strength.

The Business Impact: The Hidden Cost of “Making Do”

While skipping an upgrade cycle saves cash on the balance sheet, it creates a “productivity drag” that bleeds money in operations.

Image Source: Shutterstock

1. The Productivity Gap According to recent research from the Federal Reserve, every year a company delays upgrading equipment results in a productivity decline of roughly 0.33%. This might seem small, but it compounds. Investment patterns account for nearly 55% of the productivity gap between advanced economies.

2. The “Weakest Link” Network Effect Cassandra Cummings, CEO of Thomas Instrumentation, highlights a technical consequence often ignored: Network Throttling. Modern infrastructure is built for gigabit speeds. However, cellular and internal Wi-Fi networks must operate with backward compatibility. If a portion of your workforce is using 5-year-old devices, the network often has to throttle speeds to accommodate the slowest device, dragging down the experience for employees with the newest tech.

3. The Innovation Stifle Jason Kornweiss of Diversified notes that outdated tech destroys employee morale. Workplace research indicates that 88% of employees feel inadequate technology stifles innovation, and 24% report working late or overtime just to compensate for slow, aging systems.

The Fix: How We Solve the Stagnation

If the problem is cost and fear, the solution lies in flexibility and sustainability. Here is how the market can correct course:

• Embrace the Circular Economy: Steven Athwal of The Big Phone Store argues that longevity isn’t the problem—it’s the lack of regulation. Governments and Big Tech need to treat repair as infrastructure, improving access to parts and extending software support so older devices don’t become productivity sinkholes.
• Shift to Leasing and BYOD: For businesses, the capital expenditure of buying thousands of new laptops is daunting. Kornweiss suggests Bring-Your-Own-Device (BYOD) policies, allowing employees to integrate their own (often newer) personal devices into work systems. Alternatively, leasing models can keep hardware fresh without the massive upfront bulk buy.
• Modular Innovation: Manufacturers need to move away from the “purge and replace” culture. Modular designs that allow for partial upgrades (like swapping a network card or battery) without replacing the entire chassis could bridge the gap between cost and performance.

The Bottom Line: The iPhone 17 and the rise of on-device AI might be the carrot that lures consumers back, but until economic confidence returns, we are likely to see the age of our devices—and the cost of maintaining them—continue to rise.